The next 75 for the next 75...

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The next 75 months would invariably decide the course of the next 75 years feels pathikrit payne of IIPM Think Tank

An era is like a living being. And just like every child whose formative years act as harbinger of what he might shape up to later on, for every era, the beginning of it always acts in a similar way, giving a hint to what is in the offing. This millennium has perhaps seen more activity in just eight years than probably what many centuries might have not seen. Not that no other century witnessed wars and mayhem but probably never before, the endeavor for war and annihilation have coexisted with relentless march for peace. Never before the tirade against racism been as severe as have been now and yet more people die due to ethnic violence now than ever before. Never before the conquest of science over epidemics been so absolute and yet never before the mankind has faced so helpless against the crusade of HIV, cancer, Alzheimer and Parkinson’s as it has been now. Never before the world has spent so much on arms production and yet never before mankind has been concerned about the uselessness of it. Never before the world has made so much wealth and yet never before the money-makers been so moved by the destitution of nearly half of mankind. And finally never before imperial Europe of the past has been a silent testimony to the ascent of third world and had to grudgingly accept the inevitable without any means to go for an outright war however much might the urge be. Everything said and done this century is crucial for not just humanity but for mother earth as well as this century or probably the next 75 years might actually decide whether mankind eventually would survive the crusade of no one else but mankind himself. And the next 75 month might just decide the course of the next 75 years.

The next 75 months or around six years is not a long time when compared even to a century instead of eternity. But these six years and three months are crucial as it would decide whether the world to love to hate China’s polices and continue to adore its products with affection or that the hatred for Chinese geopolitical policies would eventually have its fallout on its economy. The next six years would also determine as to what course India would take. Whether India would be withered by the myopic and self-serving policies of it’s government busy enough with the tensions of its own survival to ignore the future or whether India’s growth fuelled by Indian companies and Indians would eventually outweigh the ineffectiveness of its government would be a issue to take keen interest on.

The next six year would crucially decide USA’s future as to whether it, in-spite of the change in government, would continue to follow the reckless misadventures in the Middle East and elsewhere or whether there would be a change of heart. Everything said and done, it would not help the cause of innovation and furthering the cause of reduction of global malaises if the downslide of both of USA’s economy and popularity continues unabated. If things go for better and if sanity prevails in taking correct steps towards similar reconciliation with Iran as was done with North Korea then it would go a long way in not just reducing the tensions of an ensuing war but would also go a long way in making sure that the price of crude oil is given a breather.

The next 75 months would also give an idea as to whether European Union would emerge as the next big dud like the dotcom bubble or would be something worth its weight in gold. One doesn’t need to keep the Goldman Sachs report or the Pricewaterhouse Coopers reports on finger tips to witness the decline of the economies of France, UK, Germany or Italy.

If it is not enough, then one has to keep an eye on the impunity with which even the erstwhile conservative Europe is selling off its companies to their more aggressive, emerging Indian counterparts with more money in their pockets and dreams in their eyes. And though one finds it difficult to find a European product in Europe (most would be made in China) yet the real threat to Europe is not from India or China but from Europe itself. Even today a French would look at a British as a British and not as a fellow European, a Switzerland would prefer to be outside everything, a UK would detest the Euro as a currency while in telephone booths of Paris, Turkey would be written as an Asian country. For all the talks of an alternative to USA, the internal disintegration of Europe continues with formation of countries like Kosovo. While EU is eager to expand, the invisible line separating prosperous Western Europe from relatively impoverished Eastern Europe continues and while it is encouraging the countries from former Soviet Blocs to join, it doesn’t know how to grapple with the impending energy crisis as beneath the aura of a power bloc essentially remains a continent hollow on energy supply for which it is still pathetically dependent on Russia, thanks to the chilling winters when gas supply is a must. Ironically it is only global warming which perhaps can reduce its dependence on Russia.

The next 75 months would also decide as to whether for the next 75 years the global dependence on the American economy would continue the same way as it had been in the last 75 years, since the 1929 depression or that a new economic order would eventually emerge. One should pity the rest of the world that for all the hatred and animosity towards all types of Americanism, it has failed to create anything better. In the next 75 months if the Indian and Chinese economies could continue to grow with the same momentum inspite of an impending American recession, it might give a ray of hope for the world or else, like the fleet of mice, the rest of the would continue to follow the American Pied Piper towards oblivion.

The next 75 months would also determine as to what shape terrorism would take in the next 75 years. If the bomb blasts and killing in the name of God, independence and class continues with impunity, then even if USA reforms its own behavior, it would not serve the purpose. Rather one then would want USA and other to take on the perpetrators with same intensity. In this respect the Maoists of Nepal hold a example of how to culminate a mass movement into ultimate success through the eventual return to democratic path and shunning arms. If that is not emulated by many, then even all of mankind’s blood would fall short to take care of the bloodshed that is in the offing in the next 75 years. Yet more than anyone else, the next 75 months would be crucial for India and China.

The Olympic fiasco of China with respect to the Tibet issue proved how much China is intrinsically disliked by the world. And while the world has already resigned to the fact that this century if not the millennium would belong more to these two countries than anyone else, whoever becomes more acceptable globally as a sensible and mature nation would eventually win the race. China might be as of yet ahead of India in terms of economic growth and GDP, but India Inc’s glorious innings in terms cross border takeovers and the diplomatic games being played by India (albeit slowly) in Africa and Central Asia might alter things soon enough. India might not be getting as fast an access to the African oilfields in lieu of export of small arms, the way China is doing but it’s own way of doing it through the endeavor of uplifting the African nations would hopefully bear better fruits in the long run. And of course the next 75 months would also decide whether in the long run it would be ‘The India and China Story or The India vs China Story.’

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Source : IIPM Editorial, 2008

An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri and Arindam chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).

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