Friday, October 28, 2011

Disasteracy: Democracy's role in disaster!

Disaster Economic System

Sample this: January 2010, Haiti: A 7.0 magnitude earthquake killed more than 200,000 people. February 2010, Chile: an 8.8 magnitude quake killed only 500 people. Surprisingly, an earthquake in 2001 in India killed around 20,000 people while a similar one in Pakistan killed more than 80,000.

The above mentioned trivia not only echoes the devastating capacity of a natural disaster but also brings forth an interesting fact about how natural disasters of similar magnitude have different impacts at different locations! Yes, population densities of affected regions do play a major role in varying death counts but an in-depth scrutiny of the whole issue reveals some other paradoxical correlations too. A study of the trends of such natural disasters (across times and geographies) shows that political and economi

c systems of a nation play a very important role when it comes to determining the extent of the death toll caused by disasters. In both the abovementioned cases (Haiti vs. Chile and India vs. Pakistan), the nations that saw less casualties were strangely the democratic ones. Taking the discussion further, in 1970, a 7.9 magnitude earthquake in Peru took lives of more than 60,000 people and a stronger quake in 2001 in the same nation killed only 150 people. Again, in 2001, Peru was a democratic nation, which it was not during 1970 – Peru had re-established democracy in 1975.

It is observed that leaders in a democracy do everything possible to protect their people from natural disasters. It has also been observed that leaders actually win elections if their human rehabilitation efforts after disasters are effective. Democratic leaders dependent on votes do leave no stones unturned to save their skin and benefit out of disasters to win elections or to stay in power. Does this mean that non-democratic nations do not take care of their citizens in moments of disaster? Strangely, the answer is yes – and unfortunately, non-democratic nations are also the last ones that receive global aid when faced with massive natural disaster. From African nations to east European former countries that have witnessed even man made disasters like genocide, human life has a much lower value in non-democratic nations than democratic ones. Bush’s ratings collapsed to 41 per cent in October 2005 and a worse 38 per cent in November 2005 after hurricane Katrina. This was one of the reasons why Republicans lost elections in 2006 and 2008. As per a New York Times article, “Institutionalized autocracies tend to outperform non-institutionalized or corrupt autocracies as well as young democracies when it comes to preventing earthquake deaths.” Similarly, a study conducted by Geotimes in 2007 concluded that “the World Bank’s Democracy Index is a strong predictor of a natural disaster’s humanitarian impact than either the size of the event or the population density in the area of the disaster.” Out of all global disaster deaths from early 60s to early 2000s, 80 per cent were credited to nations having low democracy indices.

A disaster only shows its true colour when its devastating effects become difficult to manage. It is undoubtedly impossible for human beings to prevent them from happening. But a noble initiative in order to limit their immediate impact is the call for the day. Even Amartya Sen received his Nobel Prize for proving that there has never been a famine in a country with a truly free press. He also stated that when potential victims of famine are able to publicise their plight, governments will be forced to respond. Thus, disaster is the final call for a sinking government to play the right cards. And democracy the call to fight disaster.

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